Which viscosity grades are hardest to get, why, and where Ultra1Plus can supply them. Built from public industry reporting and reviewed by our team.
Each figure is dated. Base oil markets move slowly, so the newest data point for each signal is shown.
Group III 4 cSt approaching this level, against roughly $3.30 of base oil per gallon in a typical 0W-20 before the crisis.
As of late July 2026 · JobbersWorldU.S. producer price index for lubricating oil base stocks. It kept rising in July even as crude fell 11.9%.
August 2026 · U.S. BLS via LubeNetNon-Iranian-linked vessels, with at least 28 attacks reported in October. Pre-war traffic ran near 85 a day.
Oct 5 to 11, 2026 · Lloyd's List IntelligenceValvoline's estimate of finished lubricant cost above March levels, or $5 to $7 per oil change.
Aug 5, 2026 · Valvoline Q3 callExtended from October 1. API says Group III supply has tightened further since August.
Oct 23, 2026 · Heavy Duty TruckingRisk levels are our assessment on a five-step scale. Ultra1Plus availability is shown on the right.
Toyota warned dealers in April that its supplier might not meet demand and allowed only limited, one-interval substitutions. Formulated almost entirely on Group III.
Specified for a small set of engines and historically sold almost entirely through dealer parts counters, so there is little independent supply to fall back on.
Covered by the same Toyota supply bulletin as 0W-8. Widely specified in recent Toyota and Honda engines.
European OEM approvals tie the oil to a tested formulation, and European Group III buyers have been on allocation since spring with Gulf imports cut.
Same European base oil squeeze as the 0W-20 approvals, with limited room to reformulate without re-testing.
About a third of U.S. passenger car oil volume. Nissan cut dealer allocations and Costco limited purchases; availability varies by region.
Shelves are mostly stocked, but prices are up and Group II is tight because refiners are favoring diesel.
Fleets report higher lubricant costs. New API CL-4 and FB-4 categories remain on schedule for first licensing in January 2027.
War with Iran begins. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz collapses.
Three Gulf plants with major Group III capacity are hit within about ten days, including Shell's Pearl GTL in Qatar. Roughly 44% of U.S. Group III supply is sidelined.
API activates emergency provisional licensing so blenders can substitute unavailable base oils under controlled testing.
Toyota tells dealers its supplier may struggle to meet demand for 0W-8 and 0W-16 and sets narrow substitution limits.
ILMA warns of a shortage of low-viscosity oils. Nissan allocates dealer oil at 55% of prior-year volume.
Group III 4 cSt approaches $11.40 a gallon. European Group III supply falls to a 30-month low.
Valvoline says finished lubricant costs could run about 60% above March.
Costco raises its Kirkland synthetic price and limits purchases of Kirkland and Mobil 1.
API extends emergency licensing for another 90 days.
API says Group III supply has tightened further since August. Shell says premium low-viscosity synthetics and some driveline fluids are affected.
Ultra1Plus blends in Houston and currently supplies these grades to shops, dealer groups, fleets and distributors on allocation. Tell us your application and volume.
How we rate risk. Each grade's level reflects four public signals: how much of the formulation depends on Group III base oil, whether OEM approvals limit substitution, whether OEMs, majors or retailers have reported rationing, and retail availability reports. Levels are Ultra1Plus's assessment, reviewed October 27, 2026. They are not live inventory data, and local availability varies.
Sources.